Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 2.098583 2.224389 2.356911 2.507445 2.674355 2.854515 3.064712
2025-08-24 1.895044 2.065536 2.253735 2.478734 2.742917 3.046500 3.426597
2025-08-31 1.779564 1.976776 2.201609 2.480389 2.821878 3.233675 3.779494
2025-09-07 1.699737 1.916732 2.170615 2.495017 2.906908 3.425018 4.148359
2025-09-14 1.610283 1.836330 2.106015 2.458641 2.919156 3.518493 4.392330
2025-09-21 1.533024 1.764564 2.045343 2.419731 2.920727 3.592703 4.611987
2025-09-28 1.462702 1.696720 1.984409 2.374442 2.907473 3.641654 4.795892
2025-10-05 1.435480 1.680670 1.987101 2.411072 3.005826 3.853095 5.248938
2025-10-12 1.411842 1.667318 1.991564 2.448923 3.106932 4.076100 5.751101
2025-10-19 1.387116 1.650895 1.990392 2.477824 3.195857 4.287690 6.266196
2025-10-26 1.349398 1.615543 1.961773 2.465749 3.222068 4.401915 6.625315
2025-11-02 1.313831 1.581442 1.932995 2.451232 3.242535 4.507276 6.983390
2025-11-09 1.275291 1.542527 1.896712 2.424907 3.244447 4.584569 7.306806
2025-11-16 1.238927 1.505267 1.861170 2.397686 3.242810 4.655303 7.630335
2025-11-23 1.214512 1.483253 1.845793 2.399253 3.286789 4.809661 8.164050
2025-11-30 1.195617 1.467992 1.839074 2.413106 3.351231 5.007244 8.841801
2025-12-07 1.162987 1.432623 1.802214 2.378652 3.331989 5.045627 9.146064
2025-12-14 1.131440 1.397832 1.764958 2.341780 3.306054 5.068281 9.416261
2025-12-21 1.099724 1.361945 1.724958 2.298838 3.266920 5.061220 9.607826
2025-12-28 1.092244 1.359855 1.734004 2.333572 3.365585 5.340348 10.664889
2026-01-04 1.085408 1.358342 1.743646 2.369445 3.468638 5.641933 11.905712
2026-01-11 1.076518 1.353537 1.748073 2.396824 3.558013 5.926500 13.221536
2026-01-18 1.057768 1.333975 1.729599 2.385386 3.573801 6.048859 14.032560